Dream Cast: Sega's Last Hope?

Sega wants to be the nightmare on Sony and Nintendo's street.  With the launch of its new 128 bit video game console, Dream cast, reclaiming the #1 spot from its video game maker rivals.  In addition to video game hardware, the company makes video and PC game software, arcade games, and Pico multimedia educational games.  Sega also operates about half a dozen theme parks in the US, Europe, and Japan, and it is opening entertainment complexes, which offer movie theaters, karaoke, spas, bowling, and food stands. (2)  The company, a distant 3rd in video game consoles, is retiring its aging and unsuccessful Sega Saturn console to introduce Dream cast.  The console was developed with partners Microsoft, Hitatchi, NEC, Video Logic, and Yamaha.  Sega has pinned its hopes on Dream cast, which is expected to be 10 times faster than current leader 32 bit Sony Play Station, have realistic 3-D graphics, and allow players to compete over the Internet. (2)  This site wants to answer the question: "will it work".  Will Sega once again rule the video game industry, or will Dream Cast fail like Sega Saturn?

Sega Dream Cast Audio Clip

Sega's Brief History

Sega was established in Tokyo, In June 1960, as Nippon Goraku Bussan Co. Ltd., and was later renamed when the company merged with Rosen Enterprises in 1965.  Sega of America, the video game and console producer, was formally established in 1986. (1) Sega's first game console, self titled, was moderately successful in the US until Nintendo released its bit system.  While Nintendo ruled the US, Sega retained most of the market share in Europe with its own 8 bit system.  In 1989 Sega introduced Genesis, a 16- bit game system.  By 1991, when Nintendo finally came out with a 16 bit console, Sega had already sold more than a million Genesis systems, and captured most of the market share. (5)  Successful games such as the no-holdsbarred version of Mortal Kombat out sold Nintendo's cleaner version two to one.  In 1995 Sega Saturn and Sony Play station both hit the market, followed shortly by Nintendo 64.  Even though Sega tried new innovations for Sega Saturn (like Net link, letting players connect to the Internet), the console was an overall disappointment.  Sales paled compared to Sony's Play station, and software makers complained that it was difficult to develop games for the platform. (2)  By 1997, Sega had lost it's majority of the market share reduced to a lowly 5% behind Sony and Nintendo.  The failure of Saturn, mergers that fell through, and the Asian economic slump caused the company to incur a loss for the fiscal year 1998. (5) The following is a financial summary of Sega from the Genesis era until 1998. 

                                                     Numbers in millions

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
sales 416 498 758 1863 3623 4054 4432 3588 3496 2492
net income 22 31 59 94 268 109 59 39 16 (268)
income as % of sales 5.3% 6.2% 7.8% 5.0%. 7.4% 2.7% 1.3% 1.1% .5% -------
earnings per share ------ ----- ------ ------ .33 .57 .39 .10 .65 (10.64)
Information from source (2)

As can be seen from the table Sega has experienced a decline in sales and net income since around 1993-1995.  Most of this decline can be attributed to the release of Sony Play station and Nintendo 64.  Sega Saturn was a huge failure and lost Sega it's market share.  Last year in 1998 Sega had to cut it's labor force in the US by 30%, in order to free up revenue to finish the production and marketing of Dream Cast. (6)

Sega Genesis

If Sega is to be successful again, they must recapture the excitement and profitability of their game console.  To regain that kind of success Sega will look a Genesis, their most successful console to date, and try to imitate some of the factors that made that project a hit.  one, and perhaps the most influential, factor is that of timing.  Genesis was the first 16 bit game on the block.  They used a large marketing plan to drum up demand and then Genesis took off in sales.  A second but equally important factor that made this project a success was the wide selection of games available.  Sega spent a lot of money to make sure Genesis's games were abundant and popular. (5)

Sega Saturn

If Sega is to prevent past mistakes they must learn from the Sega Saturn project.  Saturn was a console Sega put out in order to compete with Play station and Nintendo 64, which were released first.  The console had a long wait until it was everywhere in America, and by that time Sony had most of the market followed by Nintendo.  Saturn had other problems though, especially with the games.  Programers complained that Saturn games were too hard to make, and after the profit margin on them remained low many independent game producers stopped making them. (5)

Sega Dream Cast

If Dream Cast is to be successful Sega must not repeat the mistakes of Saturn.  Already in Sega's strategy can we see the similarities to Genesis.  Dream cast was released at a point where demand for Sony's and Nintendo's products are beginning to decline.  It's important that Sega was the first to bring the 128 bit console to the market.  By doing this they hope to capture a majority of the market before Sony and Nintendo bring their own versions of the 128 bit system to customers. (14)  Another plus to being the first in the market, is the switching costs that are created with customers.  After paying $200 for a console, people are not likely to buy the other 128 bit systems.  Perhaps the most important factor in the success of the console is the success of the games.  If Sega's games are not popular, as they weren't with Saturn, then the future of Sega will probably be disappointing or fatal to the company.  If the games are a hit with the public, and Sega continues to produce winning games, then Sega will almost guarantee itself a spot as market leader. (17) 

Dream Cast Movie Clip

Dream Cast Thus Far

So far Dream cast has been a big success in America.  One month before the console hit the store shelves Sega received an order for over 300,000 units. The Dreamcast managed to sell over 372,000 units after four days on sale, surpassing the previous record holder, Nintendo 64, which took six days to hit 350,000 when it launched three years ago. Total revenue for the machine now lies at approximately $132,712,000, branding Sega's machine an instant success. (14) Equally as impressive as the hardware sales were related software sales during the first four days. It appears that Sega's strategy of 18 games at launch has worked out tremendously well, with first and third party titles selling at an average ratio of three pieces of software for every system sold. (8) The title NFL 2K is Sega's best selling game to date.

Will Sega's Strategy Work?

Now we've come to the question for which this site is dedicated for.  Will Sega's plan to revitalize the company fly on the wings of Dream cast?  After researching the issue I feel that Sega will survive, and that Dream cast will continue to be successful.  Sony, the current industry leader, debuts PS2 next December.  If Sega is firmly established with the American consumers before PS2 becomes available, I feel, Sony's debut won't be a big deal.  No one is certain as to the outcome of the game industry in the next couple of years.  What I conclude, and what I hope you agree with, is that Sega has put Dream cast into the best possible situation for success.

Review Questions

1.  Why has Sega's net income decreased every year since 1993?
2.  What factors were pivotal in the failure of Saturn?
3.  What made Sega Genesis such a success with US consumers?
4.  Do you think this new strategy will work?

Additional Sites of interest

Yahoo games

Dream cast IGN

Sega Ozisoft

SegaSoft

References

1. Sega Homepage-**** http://www.sega.com/-provides valuable information on new products, as well as basic company information. An excellent site for the company's future projects. Dreamcast, Sega's new game console, debuts this year.  This site is also a good source   for information about other products, such as games, that Sega sells. 
 

2.Hoovers-**** Hoover's. (1999). Hoover's Handbook of World Business. Austin, Texas. Business Press Provides a complete overview, history and financial record of Sega. Records sales and net income since 1989. Allows the reader to see what activities
make up what percent of its overall revenue. Last year Sega  incurred a loss of 268 million. 

3. Moody’s - ****Arnold, w., Cox, B., Hastings, S., Hoang, J., &
Pham, J. (1998). Financial Information Services on Sega enterprises, Ltd.Moody’s International Manual, 3, 5574-5575 -provides financial and other accounting records about Sega for the years 1996-1998. Last year Sega incurred a net loss in profit, and was forced to liquidate some assets along with layoff some employees to cover the damage.

4 . AT&T-**** http://www.att.com/press/item/0,1193,599,00.html provides valuable information  about the strategic agreement AT&T and Sega have together. AT&T will provide the internet service for Sega's Dream cast system.  At&T views this agreement as an opportunity to expands internet provider service.

5.Sega Heritage-**** Lefton, T. (1999, August 09). Sega flags heritage, not technology.
 Brandweek, 31, p.45 provides us with information about how Sega is marketing
 Dreamcast. Rather than exploit just the technology aspect of the system Sega is trying to create uniqueness so as to set itself apart from other competitors who will soon imitate the technology. 

6. San Francisco Chronicle ***
 http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/1999/09/15/DD36536.DTL
 provides a critical review of the Dream cast system, as well as some other first week sale
 information. Dream cast has already generated more than $132 million in sales here in the U.S. 

 7. CBSMarketWatch- ***http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990910/news/current/consum 
 e_this.htx?source=htx/http2_mw provides basic information about the system and competitors.  Gives warning about Y2K possible glitches the system may have.  Points out that Sega is currently having trouble with one of its produced games.  If Sega is to be successful they cant make the same mistakes as they did on Saturn. 

 8. AssociatedPress-*** http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/19990913/tc 
 /sony_playstation_ii_2.html provides information about playstation2, Sega's main competitor.Sony plans to launch PS2 so as to make it into stores by Christmas.  If Sega is to be successful they must establish high demand before PS2 hits the shelves. 

 9. SunSpotOnline-***http://www.sunspot.net/cgi-bin/edito 
 rial/story.cgi?section=news-pluggedin&storyid=1150140223863provides a critical review, aswell as a general overview of the technology involved. “Dream cast is the first video game machine with a 200 MHz microprocessor and a 128 bit graphics engine under the hood. The result: the most fluid, realistic visual this side of “Toy Story.” Sega claims Dream cast is 15 times more powerful than a Sony Play Station, 10 times more powerful than a Nintendo 64, and has four times the graphics processing power of a Pentium II computer”. 

10. Salon.com-*** http://www.salon.com/tech/review/1999/09/14/dreamcast/index.html provides information about the hype Sega has created about its new machine. Also included is a critical review about the game and some of the problems Sega has had with the internet hookup. TAT, Sega's partner in providing internet service is working fast with Sega to correct the
 problem. 

 11. Freep.com-***http://www.freep.com/tech/gameguy/qg 
 ames8.htm provides information about the current games available for Sega Dream cast. Also gives the names of various companies that make Sega games.  All of the most popular titles available are produced and manufactured by Sega. 

 12. Nintendo-*** http://www.nintendo.com/provides information about Nintendo, Sega’s
 competitor, including games and company information. Nintendo plans to release its own
 128-bit system called Dolphin, sometime next year. 

 13. Sony Play station- ***http://www.playstation.com/index.htmlprovides information about SonyPlaystation, Sega’s biggest competition. Currently Play station has the biggest market share in the U.S. Play station will launch PS2 this year.  Games and other information are available on this site. 

14.Sega’s Demand-*** Sega Dream cast brings strong demand into battle with Sony’s new Play station. (1999, June 02). Wall Street Journal, p. B14c provides us with information about demand so far and a brief overview of Sega Co.So far Sega has received 2.4 million orders for Dreamcast by US retailers. Sega is having trouble filling the orders because of its recent downsizing

15.Sega Rentals-**Sega Dream cast rentals to precede sales start. (1999, July 12). Twice, p.46provides us with information about the preliminary strategy employed to start demand for Dreamcast. Hollywood Video will rent out 10,000 units of the new system two months before the system goes on sale.

16.Sony and Nintendo cut prices-** Wilson, W. (1999, August 23). In transition, Sony and
 Nintendo cut console prices. Video Business, p.4 provides us with information about Sony and Nintendo’s strategy to retain market share in light of Sega's new machine. Both companies dropped the price of their systems to $99 in an effort to boost sales. 

 17.Sega challenging PCs-** New video game machines will challenge PCs. (1999,
 September 02). Wall Street Journal, p. B6 provides us with information concerning the PC game market. Until now the PC games were of better quality than that of game systems. With the launched Sega Dream cast that all changes. 

     Rating system: 

 ****= Highest possible rating 

 ***= Good source 

 **= Average source some good information 

 *= Poor source maybe some information